CAIRO: Nearly six years after the African Union (AU) shut it out in the cold, Egypt will take the organization鈥檚 helm 鈥� and strengthening multilateral powers is unlikely to be on the agenda.

Cairo鈥檚 tenure 鈥渨ill probably concentrate on security and peacekeeping,鈥� said Ashraf Swelam, who heads a think tank linked to the country鈥檚 Foreign Ministry.

Incoming AU chair President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi will likely focus less on 鈥渇inancial and administrative reform鈥� than his predecessor, Swelam added.

Such reform was the cornerstone of outgoing AU chairman Paul Kagame鈥檚 year in the role.

The Rwandan president has pushed for a continent-wide import tax to fund the AU and reduce its dependence on external donors, who still pay for more than half the institution鈥檚 annual budget.

The near year-long lock out from the AU came after Egypt鈥檚 army deposed President Muhammad Mursi, who in 2012 had become the country鈥檚 first democratically elected president.

El-Sisi is due to take the helm at the AU鈥檚 biannual heads of state assembly, which takes place on Feb. 10 and 11 at the AU鈥檚 gleaming headquarters in Ethiopia鈥檚 capital Addis Ababa.

As usual, the continent鈥檚 multiple security crises will be high on the VIPs鈥� agenda.

The single market is a flagship of the AU鈥檚 鈥淎genda 2063鈥� program, conceived as a strategic framework for socioeconomic transformation. However, the trade pact has met resistance from South Africa.

El-Sisi will therefore need to push hard for ratification of this accord, if it is to come into effect. Rwanda鈥檚 ambitious funding proposal will also likely be on the table.

But it has met resistance not only from Egypt, but other member states, so may fail to pass.

Reform of the AU Commission is an even more sensitive topic. In November 2018, most states rejected a proposal to give the head of the AU鈥檚 executive organ the power to name deputies and commissioners.

But the Egyptians are 鈥渇ully engaged鈥� in pushing other AU reforms, according to an AU official.

One key initiative backed by Cairo is the Continental Free Trade Area (CFTA), an initiative agreed by 44 of 55 member states in March 2018.

For Elissa Jobson, head of Africa advocacy at the International Crisis Group, El-Sisi can be expected to 鈥渦se the presidency to increase his country鈥檚 standing among other African states.鈥�

鈥淭his is not a departure from previous administrations,鈥� particularly that of the outgoing chairman, she added.

鈥淜agame showed that the presidency 鈥� for a long time considered to be merely a figurehead 鈥� can be used to promote national interests and boost a leader鈥檚 international profile,鈥� Jobson said.

The AU official 鈥� who requested anonymity 鈥� said Rwanda鈥檚 president will remain a point person for the organization鈥檚 broad reform agenda, despite handing over the chair.

But there are major limits to the power wielded by the post of AU chairman.

Kagame suffered a crushing disavowal by the AU after expressing 鈥渟erious doubts鈥� about the results of Democratic Republic of Congo鈥檚 recent presidential election, which was officially won by Felix Tshisekedi.

While also disputed by the Catholic church, the results were validated by DRC鈥檚 constitutional court and saluted by continental heavyweights South Africa, Kenya and Egypt.

For Liesl Louw-Vaudran at the Institute of Security Studies, El-Sisi wants Egypt to be considered part of Africa, not just the Arab world 鈥� but that will require work.

鈥淣orth African countries have a reputation of looking in a different direction than Africa, and Egypt will have to overcome that stereotype,鈥� she said.

The AU鈥檚 theme for this summit is 鈥淩efugees, Returnees and Internally Displaced Persons鈥� presented within a security context.

Cairo is casting itself as a champion in the battle against illegal immigration 鈥� and as a model for hosting refugees on its soil.